The 2026 harvests in the Southern Hemisphere are in full swing – a number are ahead of a typical schedule, in fact – and this month’s Global Market Report provides the latest on conditions, grape quality, and crop-size expectations.
With one exception, the bulk markets of the world have been quiet over the past month. The introduction to our March 2025 report applies again 12 months on: “The bulk market can be characterised as slow and steady since mid-February, with the Southern Hemisphere focused on harvest and demand in the Northern Hemisphere dampened by flat or declining retail sales and, in Spain, some elevated pricing.” Wary buyers are waiting to see how the harvests affect availability and pricing before committing, perhaps using the intervening time to take the industry pulse at shows like Wine Paris (growing in prominence; we review its recent instalment here) and ProWein, and generally try to gain a read on retail sales performances since the turn of the year.
The mood music on the US market is that easier comparisons with a very challenging 2025 create the opportunity for wine sales figures to stabilise, with 2026 potentially a “transitional moment” before performance improves later in the year or in early 2027. Only time will tell if this proves accurate and if it can also be said of Europe and beyond. Recent developments in the Middle East at the very least raise a serious question mark over this view, with the strong possibility of an energy price shock and logistics disruption leading to added inflationary pressure on consumers already possessing reduced purchasing power since the 2021-23 inflation surge.
If the severer economic consequences do not come to pass, and wine sales do concertedly start to stabilise in key markets, ongoing supply adjustments such as the current crisis distillation and uprooting schemes in France, green harvesting in Spain, and vineyard removals in California, could tip rightsizing into overcorrection as 2026 turns to 2027. “Undersupply” is not a word that has featured much in our reports in recent years – and as the France page states this month, “the market is not there yet” – but some current/recent-vintage wine stocks in some supplier countries are becoming tight.
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